Market Analysis
Our monthly read on the market - the structure underneath the price, not a forecast.
The Barrel Behind Bitcoin
Bitcoin is waiting on the CLARITY Act. The bond market is watching Brent near $108, a ten-year yield above 5% and a Fed poll that has moved to a hike. The law changes the asset. Oil changes the discount rate. Over short horizons, the discount rate usually gets the first vote.
"July 2026: The Recovery Skipped Solana"
Price recovered. Market quality didn't. That single divergence is July. Ether added 24% and Bitcoin 12% in near-straight lines while SOL popped to $84, round-tripped, and finished up 4% - a 16% range that netted almost nothing. Underneath the recovery, the reward for providing liquidity thinned every week. Two things carried the book anyway: a mix that finally had a month to matter, and SOL's chop, which pays a market-neutral engine to stand still. A layered read, including the headwind we can't spin.
"June 2026: The Plumbing Healed Before the Price Did"
SOL fell 27% in June and BTC nearly 20%. But inside our engine, market quality - fill toxicity, mark-out, spreads, rejections, capacity - bottomed on the crash day and healed back to its best of the quarter while the price was still down. A full, layered read of the month from the telemetry, including what we got wrong.